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Jan 2015:

Putin is a dangerous leader who will have to decide early in 2015 whether to scale back his ambitions. President Putin has steered Russia into economic crisis with remarkable speed. At the start of 2014, Russia seemed set to enjoy another year of healthy growth; by November, the country was officially in recession. Falling oil prices, Western sanctions and Mr Putin’s own mismanagement all explain the sudden plunge. Academics will argue over which factor has proved the most damaging; what matters is that Mr Putin has courted disaster by confronting the entire Western world.

Mr Putin also mounted a shadowy invasion of Ukraine, sending thousands of Russian troops over the border. All this claimed about 5,000 lives and forced 500,000 refugees to flee their homes. With this record, how will Mr Putin react to Russia’s spiralling economic crisis? That will, perhaps, be the vital question for 2015.

 

Dec 2015:

Russia and Armenia have signed a collective security deal on a united regional air defence system in the Caucasus. Moscow is currently working on a similar system with Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. The air defence agreement between Russia and Armenia has been signed by the heads of defence of the two countries, Sergey Shoigu and Seyran Ohanyan. In 2013 Moscow signed a deal on a joint regional air defence system with Kazakhstan. Russian and Belarusian systems have already been unified.

At the same time, Russia has handed over an S-300 air defence system to Kazakhstan. According to Russian Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu, “this is a great – if not the key – contribution to the unified air defence system that has already been put in place.” Currently Armenia hosts a Russian military base equipped with S-300 air defence complexes and MiG-29 interceptor fighter jets.

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